The Armchair Epidemiologist | Answer "What if?" questions

Number of days to forecast Number of days to forecast starting from today.

Out of 100 infected people between ages 0-17, how many would require critical care? Disease severity for ages 0-17.

Out of 100 infected people between ages 18-64, how many would require critical care? Disease severity for ages 18-64.

Out of 100 infected people between ages 65 and above, how many would require critical care? Disease severity for ages 65 and above.

Infectious period minimum duration Number of days that the infectious period lasts for a person with the mildest form of the disease.

Infectious period average duration Number of days that the infectious period lasts for a person with an average severity of infection.

Exposed period duration Number of days that it takes for an exposed person to become infectious.

Probability of death for critically ill Probability that a critically ill person would die because of the disease

Infectivity of ages 0-17 Number of persons that an infected 0-17 year-old spreads the disease to.

Infectivity of ages 18-64 Number of persons that an infected 18-64 year-old spreads the disease to.

Infectivity of ages 65 and above Number of persons that an infected 65 year-old or older spreads the disease to.

Infectivity of critically ill Number of persons that a critically ill person spreads the disease to.

COVID-19 seems to impact people below the age of 18, between 18 and 65 and older than 65 differently. In the figures below, you can set the likelihood of mild to critical symptoms for each age group.

More information on , and .

Severity for ages 0-17

Severity for ages 18-65

Severity for ages 65+